Value investor Tobias Carlisle calls Adobe stock 'very compelling' despite AI uncertainty, pointing to a steep valuation discount and aggressive share buybacks.

What happened: Adobe shares have fallen 44.24% year-to-date and are trading at a forward P/E of 8 and a PEG ratio of 0.53, prompting Carlisle to argue the stock is undervalued. In Q2 FY2026, Adobe posted record revenue of $6.62 billion（約1.1兆円） (up 13% year over year) and repurchased roughly 8.5 million shares for $2.111 billion（約3400億円） during the quarter.

Why it matters: Adobe faces an open question about whether generative AI will ultimately disrupt its core editing tools or become a tailwind for the business. Carlisle frames the current discount as compensation for that uncertainty—if Adobe adapts or benefits from AI, investors are getting a favorable entry price. The company's 35.3% operating margin and 62.9% return on equity are under scrutiny as generative AI tools mature.

What to watch: Wall Street's consensus analyst price target is $282.27, compared with a current price near $195. Leadership changes are also unfolding, with CFO Dan Durn departing June 15, 2026, and CEO Shantanu Narayen announcing his transition after 18 years at the helm.