Texas Instruments stock has surged 57.84% over 90 days amid semiconductor sector strength, but one valuation model flags it as 41% above intrinsic value—raising the question of whether upside remains or growth is already priced in.

What happened: Texas Instruments' share price has delivered a 57.84% 90-day return and a 69.63% year-to-date return, driven by a sector-wide semiconductor rebound tied to easing interest rate pressure and renewed AI infrastructure spending. The stock currently trades near recent highs at $301.12.

Why it matters: The company is in the midst of a multiyear capacity-expansion cycle focused on U.S.-based 300mm analog manufacturing, which is expected to structurally improve cost efficiency, support higher gross margins, and increase supply-chain resilience. However, this hinges on Texas Instruments successfully filling new capacity and sustaining high margins—any reset in AI hardware spending could quickly challenge these assumptions. One valuation narrative flags the stock as about 41% above its intrinsic value, suggesting limited room for error if sentiment cools.

What to watch: The most-followed narrative fair value sits at $435.69 (implying the stock is 30.9% undervalued at current levels), but the current P/E of 51.4× sits above an estimated fair ratio of 45.6×. The key question is whether the company can sustain the margin and revenue growth assumptions baked into the higher fair-value forecast as new capacity ramps and utilization normalizes.