Intel's stock has surged 478% in a year on AI growth optimism, but the company is facing a profitability squeeze. Management has warned that ramping up its next-generation Intel 18A manufacturing process will drag gross margins, while rising memory costs and weaker PC demand add further pressure. With the stock now trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 12.1—far above its 10-year high of 4.2—investors may be underestimating the difficulty of delivering the earnings growth the valuation implies.
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Intel shares have posted a 478% gain over the last 12 months as the company executes an ambitious manufacturing roadmap centered on its next-generation Intel 18A process. Management flagged that this transition will create "a pretty decent headwind to our gross margins," while also noting "rising input costs, especially in memory" and potential PC demand weakness in the second half of the year.
Why it matters
The stock's price-to-sales multiple now sits at 12.1, compared to its 10-year high of 4.2, meaning investors are pricing in highly profitable growth alongside strong revenue gains. However, the margin pressure from new manufacturing ramp-up costs, higher component costs, and potential revenue slowdown in the Client Computing Group (which booked $7.7 billion(約1.2兆円) in revenue last quarter) could make it difficult to deliver the earnings growth the stock's valuation assumes.
What to watch
The profitability challenge may prove more critical than the AI revenue narrative. The company's ability to maintain or recover gross margins as it scales Intel 18A production, while managing input cost pressures and PC market conditions, will determine whether the stock's recent run-up proves sustainable.
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