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Broadcom, AMD race past S&P 500 on AI chip demand

Broadcom, AMD race past S&P 500 on AI chip demand

Key takeaway

  • Broadcom and AMD have both outperformed the S&P 500 year to date, driven by surging AI chip demand.

  • AMD posted 50% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, while Broadcom's sales grew 48% and is guiding for 84% growth in its fiscal Q3 as AI semiconductor revenue accelerates.

  • The shift toward agentic AI is reshaping the infrastructure—CPUs, which AMD produces, are becoming more central as the ratio of CPUs to GPUs is expected to rise significantly from historical levels.

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Broadcom and AMD have both outpaced the S&P 500 year to date, with AMD delivering 50% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 (ended June 27) and Broadcom's sales up 48% year over year in its fiscal 2026 Q2 (ended May 3). Broadcom's CFO Kirsten Spears told investors to expect 84% year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal 2026 Q3, while AMD's guidance implies 41% year-over-year revenue growth next quarter.

  2. Why it matters

    The two companies occupy different positions in AI infrastructure—Broadcom specializes in ASICs (custom chips for tech giants), while AMD focuses on GPUs and CPUs. CPUs are becoming more critical as the industry shifts toward agentic AI, where the ratio of CPUs to GPUs is expected to change from one CPU per eight GPUs to potentially one CPU per GPU or four CPUs per GPU in certain deployments, which could drive significantly higher CPU demand.

  3. What to watch

    Broadcom's fiscal 2026 third-quarter results will be key; the company expects its AI semiconductor revenue to more than triple year over year in that quarter. AMD's data center business, which accounts for 58% of revenue and is where AI products are sold, is expected to accelerate growth in the second half of the year.

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Context & Analysis

Broadcom and AMD represent two distinct approaches to capitalizing on AI infrastructure growth. Broadcom dominates the ASIC market, providing custom chips directly to hyperscalers, while AMD competes in the broader GPU and CPU space. The divergence in their product strategies is becoming strategically significant as the AI industry evolves. Broadcom's guidance for 84% year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal Q3 suggests momentum in ASIC demand is accelerating faster than expected, with AI semiconductor revenue alone anticipated to more than triple year over year. AMD's 41% guidance for next quarter, while lower in percentage terms, reflects a different growth trajectory driven by its established position in both GPUs and CPUs across the broader data center market.

The structural shift toward agentic AI is reshaping the economic calculus of AI infrastructure in ways that may favor CPU-dependent architectures. Historically, AI training required one CPU per eight GPUs; the move toward agentic systems is reversing this ratio, with industry guidance suggesting four CPUs per GPU or even one-to-one ratios in certain deployments. This change has material implications for AMD, whose CPU business stands to benefit from increased infrastructure spending on processors as hyperscalers rebuild their systems to support these new ratios. Neither company's guidance has been fully updated to reflect how deeply this ratio shift will penetrate AI data centers, which leaves room for upside surprises as deployment patterns stabilize.

FAQ

What is the expected CPU-to-GPU ratio in agentic AI deployments?
Red Hat, an IBM company, stated that the ratio will change to four CPUs per GPU in certain agentic deployments, up from the historical ratio of one CPU per eight GPUs used for training models. Some deployments may require one CPU per GPU.
What is Broadcom's AI revenue growth guidance?
Broadcom's CFO Kirsten Spears told investors to expect 84% year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal 2026 Q3, and the company anticipates its AI semiconductor revenue will more than triple year over year when it reports those results.
What percentage of AMD's revenue comes from data center?
Data center accounts for 58% of AMD's revenue, and that part of the business is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with guidance implying 41% year-over-year revenue growth next quarter.
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