SpaceX raised $75 billion（約12兆円） in its IPO on June 12, valuing it at $2.1 trillion（約340兆円） and making it the seventh-largest U.S. public company, but one analyst's $3 trillion（約480兆円） price target faces skepticism from historical IPO performance data.

What happened: SpaceX went public on June 12 and raised $75 billion（約12兆円）, nearly tripling the all-time IPO capital raise record. It closed its first trading day with a $2.1 trillion（約340兆円） market cap, ranking seventh among U.S. public companies. KGI Securities analyst Rob Chang set a $227 price target, implying a roughly $2.97 trillion（約480兆円） valuation and an outperform rating.

Why it matters: Chang's bull case rests on SpaceX's leadership in the space economy and potential synergies from acquisitions and innovation, including its reusable Starship launch vehicle and Starlink broadband network. However, SpaceX closed its first day at a price-to-sales ratio of 113 based on 2025 sales—far above the 30 level that game-changing innovators have historically maintained. The company also carries an EBIT loss of -$2.6 billion（約4200億円） and a net loss of -$5 billion（約8000億円） on LTM revenue of $18.7 billion（約3兆円）, suggesting the valuation sits in bubble territory.

What to watch: Historical data on mega tech IPOs over the last 14 years show 30 of the largest averaged a year-one drawdown of 55%, and only 43% were higher six months after their debuts. This pattern suggests Chang's optimistic target may face near-term headwinds despite strong structural catalysts such as SpaceX's inclusion in the Russell Equity Indexes and Nasdaq-100.