Stifel initiates Buy on BlackBerry, $12 target

Key takeaway

• Investment bank Stifel initiated coverage of BlackBerry with a bullish Buy rating, arguing the software company is undervalued as a critical infrastructure provider for physical AI systems.

• The company's QNX operating system is used in AI-enabled vehicles, robotics, industrial automation, and medical devices, with a roughly $950 million（約1500億円） royalty backlog providing multi-year revenue visibility.

• Stifel estimates BlackBerry could ultimately address a revenue opportunity more than ten times larger than its current QNX business, and projects fiscal 2027 revenue of about $602 million（約960億円）, nearly 10% growth from fiscal 2026.

3 Key Points

FAQ

What is BlackBerry's main source of revenue growth according to Stifel?

BlackBerry's QNX operating system, a safety-certified platform used in AI-enabled vehicles, robotics, industrial automation, and medical devices. General embedded markets, including factories, robotics and healthcare, already account for about 20% of QNX revenue, with design wins including an AI-enabled heart pump project for Johnson & Johnson.

What is BlackBerry's royalty backlog and why does it matter?

The royalty backlog reached roughly $950 million（約1500億円） in fiscal 2026, providing multi-year revenue visibility and supporting a higher-quality, recurring revenue profile. The backlog continues to expand despite weakness in global automotive production, reflecting sustained design-win momentum.

How much revenue growth does Stifel forecast for BlackBerry in fiscal 2027?

Stifel forecasts BlackBerry's revenue will rise nearly 10% in fiscal 2027 to about $602 million（約960億円）, accelerating from 3% growth in fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase to $122 million（約200億円） from $107 million（約170億円）.