Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX AI revenue to grow 100-fold by 2030

SpaceX's $2 trillion（約320兆円） valuation hinges almost entirely on AI growth. The company disclosed that more than 90% of its claimed growth potential in the IPO prospectus is tied to AI opportunities, not its traditional rocket and satellite business. Goldman Sachs' forecast of 100-fold AI revenue growth by 2030 underpins the bull case: if achieved at Nvidia's current valuation multiple, it would justify the current $2 trillion（約320兆円） figure and create substantial shareholder returns.

However, the path forward carries material execution risk. SpaceX's current unprofitability means additional dilution from stock issuance is likely, which would reduce per-share value even if total company value grows. The bank's projection also depends on the market valuing SpaceX at Nvidia's sales multiple—a bet that assumes investor appetite for AI remains at current levels and that SpaceX can prove its AI unit generates sustained, high-margin revenue. The math works cleanly only if all three conditions hold: Goldman Sachs' revenue forecast, no adverse financing dilution, and a comparable valuation treatment from the market.