Gene Munster says SpaceX is the only company building fully independent AI infrastructure—combining rockets, its Grok AI model, Starlink satellite internet, and an in-house semiconductor foundry—giving it an edge Google cannot match. However, the stock is expensive and faces major execution risks: it must prove orbital data centers work commercially by 2028 at the earliest, drastically cut launch costs, and scale up chip production without external bottlenecks.
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Analyst Gene Munster argues that SpaceX is uniquely building all the AI infrastructure it needs—rockets, Grok AI, Starlink broadband, and a planned Terafab semiconductor foundry—without relying on external suppliers the way Google and other rivals must.
Why it matters
SpaceX's vertical integration could give it an AI advantage competitors lack; no other company can launch its own orbital data centers into space. However, the company faces steep execution risks: it must drastically cut launch costs, prove orbital data centers work commercially, and get Terafab producing chips at scale while still relying on Intel during setup.
What to watch
Morningstar analysts say SpaceX couldn't launch commercially scalable orbital data centers until 2028 at the very earliest, even in the most optimistic scenario. Munster is bullish, but the stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 110 (tech average is 9), and the company is burning cash—capital expenditures hit $10 billion（約1.6兆円） in the first quarter, and it incurred nearly $5 billion（約8000億円） in losses last year.
Gene Munster's case for SpaceX rests on the idea of "sovereign AI"—the ability to build and own all the infrastructure needed for AI without external chokepoints. His definition goes beyond software: it encompasses physical assets (rockets, satellites) and manufacturing (semiconductors). This vertical integration would theoretically insulate SpaceX from the supply-chain constraints that currently plague competitors. Google, for instance, must negotiate with Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom for chips, and those suppliers service many large customers, creating bottlenecks during high-demand periods.
Yet the bull case depends entirely on execution. SpaceX must achieve two major technical and economic breakthroughs: first, reduce Starship launch costs sharply relative to Falcon, and second, make orbital data centers commercially viable—something no company has done. The Terafab semiconductor foundry, which would allow SpaceX to stop relying on external chipmakers, is barely under way and will take years to produce chips at scale. Even then, SpaceX is currently dependent on Intel to help build the foundry itself. The earliest realistic date for operational orbital data centers, per Morningstar's analysis, is 2028—more than two years away.
Munster's bullish stance clashes with current market valuations and financial performance. SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio of 110 far exceeds the tech sector average of 9, and the company lost nearly $5 billion（約8000億円） last year while planning even heavier spending. For investors, the tension is clear: the long-term strategic advantage may be real, but the path to profitability and the near-term stock volatility (typical for mega-IPOs) make holding now a speculative bet rather than a sure thing.
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