A speculative essay proposes that artificial intelligence could prevent the kind of sustained power competition between nations or actors that has historically led to conflict—known as Thucydides traps. The argument hinges on two scenarios: either one actor grows so rapidly via AGI that it becomes an unassailable global hegemon, or competing actors use AI to negotiate binding agreements that make hard power unnecessary. Unlike past rulers or institutions, an AI singleton would face no mortality or external challengers and could theoretically persist indefinitely.
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A post discusses the theoretical possibility that artificial intelligence could prevent what scholars call Thucydides traps—sustained competition between actors for control of the future—through two potential pathways: rapid growth leading one actor to become a dominant global power, or negotiated agreements enforced by AI systems.
Why it matters
The piece suggests that unlike historical powers or institutions, an AI-based singleton (a single global authority) would not face death or external rivals and could theoretically maintain control indefinitely, fundamentally altering the dynamics of power competition that have defined human politics.
What to watch
The author attributes the core idea to Buck Shlegeris and notes the analysis is explicitly speculative, grounded in discussion at the Forethought retreat rather than empirical evidence or forecasts.
The essay presents a thought experiment rather than a news event or product announcement. Its central claim rests on two mutually exclusive outcomes: either technological progress produces an artificial general intelligence (AGI) powerful enough that one actor outgrows competitors and forms a lasting hegemon, or uncertainty about competition outcomes creates incentives for all actors to negotiate binding agreements enforced by AI systems. In both cases, the author argues, the result is a global singleton—a single authority that, unlike human rulers or past institutions, cannot die and faces no external rivals. This permanence distinguishes an AI-based singleton from every historical hegemon in the author's view. The piece does not provide empirical support, modeling, or specific timelines; instead, it frames the possibility as plausible and worth considering. The idea originates with Buck Shlegeris, and the author credits discussion at the Forethought retreat as the prompt for the analysis.
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