AI could increase annual global economic growth by up to 1 percent over the next decade, with productivity gains potentially ten times larger than current estimates as adoption expands, Bank of America report says

A Bank of America analyst report projects AI could lift global economic growth from about 3.5% to 4.5% annually over the next decade. Currently, economy-wide productivity is rising by only about 0.1% per year, despite software development productivity increasing by as much as 55% and writing-related tasks improving by roughly 40% at the task level.

AI adoption reached 64% across industries in 2025, with North America leading at 70% of companies actively using AI, compared with 65% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 63% in Asia-Pacific. The gap between strong company-level productivity gains and weaker macroeconomic gains reflects challenges including integration into workflows, skills shortages, regulatory barriers, and infrastructure limitations.

As AI models improve and costs decline, productivity gains could be up to ten times larger than current estimates. Countries with stronger AI adoption capabilities—particularly the United States and China—are expected to capture these gains earlier than Europe and many emerging markets, potentially creating lasting productivity gaps between regions.