CEO argues AI hype in boardrooms has become hysterical; reality of ROI remains sobering for most operating businesses

The author, who has led companies through the internet, mobile, crypto, blockchain, and cloud computing transitions, distinguishes between transformative technologies (like the internet) and efficiency tools (like cloud computing), arguing most companies should treat AI more like the latter.

At Capitolis, the author's fintech company, AI investment of hundreds of thousands of dollars a year has yielded pockets of efficiency but not yet positive returns; engineering teams project roughly a 25% productivity gain over time from agents writing code, affecting roughly 100 developers.

The author contends that much current corporate AI spending is exploratory rather than transformative, and warns that framing AI as an existential threat to every business—rather than making independent, ROI-based decisions—is a flawed strategy that ignores genuine variation in how different industries are affected.