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Memory shortage for AI chips hits India smartphone prices hard

Memory shortage for AI chips hits India smartphone prices hard

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    India's smartphone shipments fell 10% year-over-year in the April–June quarter, the steepest June-quarter decline in six years, as memory chip manufacturers shift production capacity to high-bandwidth memory for AI data centers, raising costs for consumer devices.

  2. Why it matters

    India is the world's second-largest smartphone market by shipments and home to over 700 million smartphone users, making it a bellwether for price-sensitive markets globally. About 60% of India's smartphone market is in the sub-₹20,000 (under $210) segment, where higher memory costs have had the biggest impact on prices. Consumers are expected to delay upgrades from roughly 3.5 years to around four years, and shipments in the sub-₹15,000 (under $150) segment fell 45% year-over-year.

  3. What to watch

    Memory shortages and elevated smartphone prices are likely to persist until at least the end of 2027, according to IDC research director Kiranjeet Kaur. Samsung posted 2% shipment growth in India in Q2—the only major brand to do so—while Apple saw a 3% decline. OnePlus this week said it would stop launching new products in Europe and North America while maintaining its India business, signaling a strategic shift among budget-focused brands as margins tighten.

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Context & Analysis

The memory chip shortage affecting India's smartphone market is the direct result of semiconductor manufacturers prioritizing AI infrastructure over consumer electronics. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have been shifting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory—the specialized chips used in AI accelerators—because they generate far higher profit per wafer than standard memory used in phones and laptops. This supply reallocation was flagged by analysts months ago, but India is now providing the clearest real-world evidence that the disruption has arrived.

The impact is unevenly distributed across the market. Budget-segment phones, which account for roughly 60% of India's market, have been hit hardest because memory cost increases represent a much larger share of the final price. Shipments in the sub-₹15,000 (under $150) segment fell 45% year-over-year, while consumers in higher-income brackets have remained more resilient—helped by financing options that make expensive devices affordable. This divide is reshaping competitive dynamics: Samsung gained 2% market share growth in Q2, while brands like OnePlus, which depend heavily on entry- and mid-tier volumes, are retreating from lower-margin regions like Europe and North America to focus on India and China, where they can still operate profitably.

For Indian consumers, the squeeze has multiple dimensions. A weaker currency makes imports costlier on top of rising component prices, compressing margins for device makers who are passing the cost to buyers. Consumers are responding by delaying upgrades (stretching replacement cycles from about 3.5 years to around four years), moving to higher-priced devices, or turning to the secondhand market. Financing has become essential to affordability, and brands and retailers are building inventory ahead of the festive season to lock in lower costs before further price increases.

FAQ
Why is India's smartphone market falling harder than China's?
About 60% of India's smartphone market is in the sub-₹20,000 (under $210) segment, where higher memory costs have had the biggest impact on prices. China saw only a 2% shipment decline in Q2 by comparison, according to Counterpoint Research.
How much are smartphone prices rising in India?
Smartphone prices in India have risen by between 4% and 68%, depending on the model, according to Tarun Pathak, Counterpoint's vice president of research.
How long will memory chip shortages last?
Memory shortages and elevated smartphone prices are likely to persist until at least the end of 2027, though the pace of price increases should moderate as consumers adjust to higher prices becoming the norm.

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