ASML earnings test if chip toolmaker can handle AI boom amid China curbs

ASML's Wednesday earnings report arrives at a pivotal moment for the global chip industry. The company's near-70% share price gain this year reflects the explosive demand for AI infrastructure, as leading chip manufacturers including TSMC (which supplies Nvidia), SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron all race to add production capacity. TSMC and Intel are expanding, while Elon Musk's TeraFab plans could add further demand. ASML's role as the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems—the $300 million（約480億円） machines essential for cutting-edge chip production—has turned it into a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain, much as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The earnings report will test whether ASML can justify its €610 billion ($696 billion（約110兆円）) valuation by demonstrating both strong near-term profitability and a credible path to higher output. Analysts at Susquehanna expect a "beat-and-raise" result, with some forecasting that all of ASML's capacity through end of 2027 may already be sold. Morningstar's analyst argues that ASML's 2030 sales target of at least €44 billion is outdated, predicting €60 billion instead, while JPMorgan suggests the company could theoretically manufacture up to 110 EUV tools per year without expanding its physical facilities. Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet has emphasized that ASML is "doing everything possible" to avoid becoming an industry bottleneck.

Clouding the outlook is the proposed U.S. export control legislation naming ASML, aimed at restricting China's ability to manufacture advanced chips. China represents up to 20% of ASML's expected 2024 sales through legal purchases of less-advanced DUV tools for automotive and industrial applications. The company has denied selling its most advanced EUV systems to China, but the regulatory uncertainty may constrain future growth and shape how ASML navigates customer demand in the coming years.