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Marvell stock slips 8% on margin guidance despite strong AI bookings

Marvell stock slips 8% on margin guidance despite strong AI bookings

Key takeaway

  • Marvell's record revenue and raised outlook did not impress investors. The stock fell about 8% after hours on soft gross margin guidance.

  • The custom chip business is growing fast but drags down margins.

  • Shares trade at about 35 times expected earnings.

3 Key Points

  1. What happened

    Marvell Technology reported record fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $2.739 billion, up 37% year over year, and raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to about $12 billion. Still, the stock fell about 8% in after-hours trading, driven by a gross margin forecast of 57.5%–58.5% for the fiscal third quarter, down from 59.4% a year ago.

  2. Why it matters

    The margin decline reflects a shift toward lower-margin custom chips for large cloud customers, which are scaling fast and now account for 79% of revenue. Management expects this trend to continue into the fiscal fourth quarter, so the same growth engine is also pressuring profitability.

  3. What to watch

    The company forecasts fiscal third-quarter revenue of $3.15 billion, about 15% above the quarter just reported. Its investor day on Oct. 6 may offer more detail on the custom chip opportunity, while shares still trade at about 35 times expected earnings for the next fiscal year.

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Context & Analysis

Marvell's quarterly results were strong on nearly every front: revenue beat guidance by $39 million, data center revenue grew 46% year over year to $2.17 billion, and the company raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to about $12 billion. Yet the stock fell about 8% after hours, a reaction tied to the one figure moving the wrong way: gross margin. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 58.9%, unchanged from the prior quarter but below 59.4% a year ago, and management guided the fiscal third quarter to a range of 57.5%–58.5%.

The margin pressure stems from the growth of custom chips for large cloud customers. CFO Dan Durn attributed the trend to revenue levels and product mix, noting the accelerating custom chip business. That business now accounts for 79% of revenue, up from 74% a year ago, and the ramp is expected to continue in the second half of fiscal 2027. The trade-off is clear: stronger growth at the cost of lower margins.

The stock's valuation remains a concern even after the drop, trading at about 35 times expected earnings for the next fiscal year. Shares have more than tripled from a 52-week low of $61.44, suggesting investors may have priced in growth with margins intact. The upcoming investor day on Oct. 6 could provide more clarity on how large the custom chip opportunity might become.

FAQ

Why did Marvell's stock fall despite strong results?
The stock dropped about 8% in after-hours trading because the company guided gross margin to a range of 57.5%–58.5% for the fiscal third quarter, down from 59.4% a year ago. Management cited the accelerating custom chip business as the reason.
What is Marvell's revenue outlook for fiscal 2027 and 2028?
Management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to about $12 billion, up from about $11.5 billion previously. For fiscal 2028, the outlook is about $18 billion, up from $16.5 billion.
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