SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have filed or completed IPOs, but analysts debate which offers the best value: SpaceX's $2.4 trillion（約380兆円） valuation looks inflated, while Anthropic's revenue growth and path to profit appear more defensible.

What happened

SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12 at a $1.8 trillion（約290兆円） valuation and has since climbed to $2.4 trillion（約380兆円）, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap. Anthropic filed its S-1 on June 1 with a valuation nearing $1 trillion（約160兆円） and revenue run rate that topped $47 billion（約7.5兆円） as of May 28, 2026. OpenAI filed its S-1 around May 22 and is generating $2 billion（約3200億円） per month in revenue as of March 2026.

Why it matters

SpaceX faces skepticism despite excitement about Starlink and xAI—Morningstar estimates its fair valuation is about 66% below its current share price. Anthropic's stellar revenue growth and prospects of generating its first profit in the second quarter of 2026 make its valuation appear more justified than SpaceX's. OpenAI, meanwhile, posted a $38.5 billion（約6.2兆円） loss last year on $13.1 billion（約2.1兆円） in revenue, indicating its expenses remain a significant challenge despite rapid sales growth.

What to watch

SpaceX stock could pull back sharply later this year once insiders can sell their shares. The S-1 filings for Anthropic and OpenAI (not yet released to the public) will be key to evaluating which company offers better value. Anthropic currently ranks as the top AI model across multiple fronts on Vellum's LLM Leaderboard and remains the only frontier AI model available on all three top cloud platforms.