
What happened
Anthropic, OpenAI, GitHub, and Microsoft have moved away from flat-rate subscriptions toward usage-based billing in the last six months, passing infrastructure costs directly to customers. Forrester's survey of over 2,600 business and technology decision-makers found that 80 percent expect data and software budgets to rise in 2027 as vendors increase prices or add usage charges.
Why it matters
Organizations face unpredictable AI spending that traditional budget management cannot handle. Personnel costs, which account for 35 percent of IT budgets in 2025, are not falling despite industry layoffs—67 percent of tech decision-makers expect to increase staffing budgets in 2027. The shift to usage-based pricing means companies must now actively monitor and control token consumption to avoid runaway costs, a capability most do not yet possess.
What to watch
Forrester recommends organizations adopt runtime cost controls such as model routing, semantic caching, and usage guardrails in 2027. A July KPMG study found that nearly a third of corporate leaders already struggle to understand and control operating costs when scaling business AI—a sign that cost visibility will become a competitive priority.
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The shift to usage-based billing represents a fundamental change in how AI infrastructure costs are distributed. Bain & Company estimated last year that the build cost for AI datacenters would hit $2 trillion(約320兆円) by 2030, creating massive financial pressure on vendors. Rather than absorb these costs themselves, major players like Anthropic, OpenAI, GitHub, and Microsoft have moved to pass them directly to customers through token-based usage charges. This transition occurred over the last six months and has begun triggering cost concerns among users.
Forrester's survey reveals that organizations are unprepared for this shift. Eighty percent of business and technology decision-makers expect software and data budgets to rise in 2027, but most lack the tools and processes to forecast and control usage-based spending. A parallel KPMG study found that nearly a third of corporate leaders already struggle to understand and control operating costs when implementing business AI at scale. The disconnect suggests that many organizations will face sticker shock as bills arrive—and will be forced to invest in FinOps capabilities (financial operations for cloud/AI spending) that traditional IT budget management cannot provide.
Staffing budgets present an additional layer of cost pressure. Despite high-profile layoffs at Oracle, Microsoft, and Meta, Forrester found that IT staffing spend has not declined in recent years and accounts for 35 percent of IT budgets in 2025. For 2027, 67 percent of tech decision-makers expect to increase their staffing budget, suggesting that the "AI washing of layoffs"—cost-cutting announcements that mask other hiring—is masking continued or rising headcount expenses.
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