Coherent to receive up to $50 million（約80億円） in U.S. CHIPS funding to expand Texas indium phosphide facility, doubling manufacturing space and supporting AI datacenter optical networking alongside NVIDIA's $2 billion（約3200億円） investment.

What happened: Coherent Corp. signed a letter of intent to receive up to $50 million（約80億円） under the CHIPS and Science Act to expand its 6-inch indium phosphide semiconductor facility in Sherman, Texas. The expansion will double manufacturing space, quadruple wafer capacity, and create more than 1,000 jobs. This deepens Coherent's collaboration with NVIDIA and follows NVIDIA's $2 billion（約3200億円） equity investment and long-term supply agreement.

Why it matters: Coherent's core investment case rests on AI datacenter optics remaining a growth engine while heavy manufacturing investments earn adequate returns. The CHIPS-backed expansion directly ties the company's expanded capacity to NVIDIA as an anchor customer, which could reinforce the current growth story. However, rising fixed costs from this expansion could quickly hurt margins if hyperscaler orders slow or industry pricing weakens.

What to watch: Coherent's narrative projects $15.4 billion（約2.5兆円） revenue and $2.6 billion（約4200億円） earnings by 2029. Some analysts assume only about 11.6% annual revenue growth and flat profitability by 2028, offering a far more cautious view of how much AI optics demand will actually absorb compared to the CHIPS-backed expansion scenario.