Wall Street analyst Dan Ives has initiated coverage of SpaceX with a $190 price target, implying 17.3% upside and suggesting a $16,500 investment could be worth close to $20,000 in one year.
Ives views SpaceX as differentiated in the tech market, crediting Starlink's strong 2025 financial performance and promising AI infrastructure deals with major cloud providers, though he acknowledges the bull case hinges on Starship's success.
What happened
Analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with an outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying about 17.3% upside from current levels. He views SpaceX as "one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market" and notes that Starlink generated operating profit of $4.4 billion（約7000億円） and adjusted EBITDA of nearly $7.2 billion（約1.2兆円） in 2025.
Why it matters
SpaceX trades at a roughly $2.13 trillion（約340兆円） market cap, making it one of the largest stocks in the market. Ives believes the company is well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler (large cloud provider) through its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure, with massive data center deals already signed with Anthropic and Alphabet.
What to watch
Ives acknowledges that the bull case for SpaceX largely depends on Starship, SpaceX's fully reusable heavy-lift launch rocket that is not yet operational. Starship has conducted 12 test flights but has not yet worked as designed, according to Ives, and the company said it could begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028.
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SpaceX's valuation at $2.13 trillion（約340兆円） places it among the largest publicly traded companies, and Ives' initiation reflects both confidence in the company's trajectory and uncertainty about its near-term path. The analyst highlights three business divisions: Starlink, which has already proven itself as a profit engine with less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market captured; the launch business, which Ives views as enabling everything else; and the AI division comprising X, Grok, data centers, and a potential terafab facility. The data center segment shows particular promise, with signed deals from Anthropic and Alphabet expected to ramp revenue in the coming year.
However, Ives' 17.3% price target, while solid, appears conservative relative to his typical stance on AI and hyperscaler stocks. The analyst is explicit about the reason: SpaceX's bull case depends almost entirely on Starship's success and the deployment of orbital data centers, yet Starship remains unproven after 12 test flights and faces regulatory uncertainty. The company's own timeline places orbital AI satellite deployment in 2028, a distant goal that may already be baked into the current valuation. For long-term investors unbothered by execution risk, this horizon may be acceptable; for those seeking near-term catalysts, the risk-reward proposition appears constrained.
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