S&P 500 excluding AI infrastructure and energy shows 0% earnings growth for 2027, highlighting market concentration risk

Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist at RIA Advisors, reported that consensus 2027 EPS estimates show AI infrastructure stocks up 32%, energy up 19%, and the overall S&P 500 up 8%—but the S&P 500 excluding AI infrastructure and energy is at 0% growth.

Most earnings improvement is concentrated in the Magnificent 7 and semiconductors rather than spread across the 500 companies in the index. Supporting infrastructure suppliers—rebar makers, cooling specialists, utilities, industrial REITs—are benefiting indirectly from data center construction CapEx but do not register as AI stocks.

The asymmetry creates acute downside risk: if AI spending flows stumble, the broader economy has little earnings cushion. The VIX closed Thursday at 16.76, down 14% over the past month, showing options markets are not currently pricing disruption to this concentration.