Goldman Sachs found that artificial intelligence is already dampening job growth in industries most exposed to automation, with call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising hit hardest.
Entry-level workers face disproportionate pressure: a 10% exposure to AI automation reduced annual headcount growth by 0.2–0.6 percentage points for newcomers, compared to only 0.1 percentage points across the broader labor market.
The effect is most visible in Germany, Australia, and the U.S., where AI adoption rates hover at 15–20%.
What happened
Goldman Sachs analyzed employment data across developed economies and found that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have seen slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with the effect particularly pronounced in Germany, Australia, and the U.S. Call centers show the starkest impact: employment is now 39% below its historical trend in the U.S., down 33% in Canada, and 27% below trend in Germany.
Why it matters
Entry-level workers feel the pressure most acutely—a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with a drag on annual headcount growth ranging from over 0.2 percentage point in the U.S. to over 0.6 percentage point in Australia, whereas the broader labor market experienced only a 0.1 percentage point drag at the same exposure level. This suggests newcomers to the workforce face steeper headwinds as AI tools automate routine tasks.
What to watch
AI adoption rates in major developed markets stand at roughly 15% to 20%, with France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. leading adoption, while Italy, Japan and New Zealand lag at the lower end. Goldman notes that AI-related hiring pressures remain visible but concentrated in a relatively narrow set of industries and workers for now.
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Goldman Sachs' research documents a trend already underway: AI is reshaping labor demand, but unevenly. The bank's analysis of employment data across developed economies reveals that the relationship between AI exposure and slower hiring is strongest in countries like Germany, Australia, and the U.S.—markets where adoption has advanced further. The concentration of damage in specific sectors—call centers, software publishing, management consulting, advertising, and information/communication services—aligns with the types of work AI tools are designed to automate: routine information handling, customer support, code generation, and data analysis.
The disproportionate impact on entry-level workers is a critical finding. A 10% exposure to AI automation reduced annual headcount growth by as little as 0.1 percentage points for the overall labor market, but between 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points for newcomers. This suggests that established workers in AI-exposed roles may be retrained or reassigned, while employers are hesitant to hire new entrants into positions where AI tools can handle the work. The fact that AI adoption still stands at only 15–20% in leading markets indicates this squeeze is still early-stage, concentrated in sectors where capabilities are most advanced and readily deployable.
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