AIToday
r/MachineLearningPublished: Jul 15, 2026, 22:00 JST

Sports prediction model shows edge vs closing lines—but edge may vanish in real betting

A sports prediction model developer found consistent edge when backtesting against closing lines (the final odds set just before an event), but faces a paradox at inference time: they predict 12–24 hours before the event when closing lines do not exist yet, using earlier, less-formed lines instead.

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