AI capability now doubling every four months

What happened

An independent research institute (METR) measured AI task-completion length and found it doubles roughly every seven months over six years, with recent acceleration to every four months. At end of 2022, the best models completed thirty-second tasks; by early 2026, some complete tasks requiring several hours of expert work on their own.

Why it matters

The author, who multiplied personal productive capacity by twenty in a few months using AI, argues this exponential curve means parts of today's jobs and processes won't survive the year in their current form. The rate of change is outpacing the ability of steering committees and organizations to debate and respond to it.

What to watch

The document is a ten-chapter sourced guide examining what this exponential means for HR, developers, engineers embedded in client companies, and payroll structures. It argues the plan is already public and being rolled out—visible in a four billion dollar deployment company and AI labs acquiring engineering teams to install AI inside client organizations.