Blackstone profits surge on AI infrastructure, but CEO warns of 'excessive exuberance'

Blackstone reported Q2 distributable earnings of $2 billion（約3200億円）, or $1.52 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.7 billion（約2700億円） and climbing 26% from the prior year. In the post-earnings conference call, 79-year-old CEO Stephen Schwarzman attributed the jump primarily to the firm's earlier investments in data centers, energy, power, and AI companies. The infrastructure business within Blackstone's private equity division was the strongest performer, growing 7.2% over the quarter and 28.6% for the previous 12 months through June.

In Q2, Blackstone sealed several major AI-related transactions. Its credit and insurance business launched a $35 billion（約5.6兆円） investment platform with Broadcom and Apollo Global Management designed to lower the compute and power costs for training AI models. In May, the company also launched an AI cloud provider in partnership with Alphabet. Beyond these headline deals, Blackstone's private equity funds hold stakes in core AI companies including SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and CoreWeave, giving the firm broad exposure across infrastructure and generative AI layers.

Despite the strong results, Schwarzman offered a measured assessment of the AI landscape. He acknowledged that AI will have an impact on society "as great as the commercialization of electricity and the Industrial Revolution," but emphasized that it will "come faster and with greater complexity." Critically, he cautioned investors and the market: "In terms of risks, we're mindful of the potential for excessive exuberance in this area, and we've carefully chosen our spots, leveraging our scale and knowledge advantage to build conviction." He added that major technological shifts create anxiety due to uncertainty about how the technology will evolve, and that "we will need to monitor these developments as a society and course correct when necessary." This selective stance contrasts with the broader rush into AI infrastructure: across private equity, credit, and real estate, nearly $200 billion（約32兆円） of data center deals have been completed in the private markets since early last year, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, underscoring Blackstone's outsized role in shaping the AI boom. Blackstone's stock rose 1% on Thursday after initially declining, though it has lost more than 19% since the beginning of January, reflecting a tough year for major private money managers.

Blackstone's strong Q2 results reflect the firm's early and strategic positioning in AI infrastructure at a moment when private capital is flooding into the sector. The infrastructure business, which benefited most from AI and data center investments, grew 28.6% over the previous 12 months, signaling that the firm's early bets are paying off. However, Schwarzman's public caution about "excessive exuberance" is noteworthy: it suggests that even as Blackstone reaps profits from the AI boom, leadership is concerned about unsustainable valuations or over-investment in parts of the sector. This stance reflects a tension in private markets—major firms like Blackstone are both major drivers of the boom (nearly $200 billion（約32兆円） in data center deals since early last year) and potential governors of it, with the scale and conviction to pull back if they perceive bubble dynamics.

Blackstone's portfolio of AI-related stakes—including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and CoreWeave—gives it broad exposure to the infrastructure and software layers of the AI market. The firm's willingness to anchor large deals (like the $35 billion（約5.6兆円） platform with Broadcom and Apollo) alongside Alphabet's participation suggests that major technology and financial incumbents see data center and compute infrastructure as a defensible, long-term bet. That Schwarzman explicitly compared AI's eventual impact to the Industrial Revolution and electricity commercialization may signal to investors that Blackstone views this as a multi-decade shift, not a short-term bubble—yet his emphasis on "carefully chosen spots" and the need to "course correct" suggests the firm will not deploy capital indiscriminately.

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