Oracle's stock has fallen 44% from its peak despite dominance in AI infrastructure, as investors worry whether the company's $638 billion（約100兆円） order backlog can actually be fulfilled.

What happened: Oracle, a major provider of data centers for AI training and processing, saw its market value reach $935 billion（約150兆円） late last year but has since declined sharply. The company reported a $638 billion（約100兆円） backlog of signed contracts (up 363% year-over-year), yet Wall Street is forecasting only 7.7% earnings growth for the next fiscal year.

Why it matters: Around $300 billion（約48兆円） of Oracle's backlog comes from OpenAI alone, which raised $122 billion（約20兆円） from investors but has only $25 billion（約4兆円） in annualized revenue and is still posting losses. Analysts question whether OpenAI and other major customers can actually pay for the computing capacity they've committed to, especially since OpenAI has similar agreements with other cloud providers like Microsoft. Oracle also carries $122 billion（約20兆円） in long-term debt and just announced plans to raise another $40 billion（約6.4兆円）, raising the stakes if that backlog doesn't convert to revenue.

What to watch: Oracle expects to convert only 12% of its $638 billion（約100兆円） backlog into revenue over the next 12 months, with a further 34% in the 24 months after that—meaning less than half could become actual revenue over the next three years. The company's P/E ratio of 31.6 is only slightly below the Nasdaq-100's 34.6, suggesting limited upside in the near term.