S&P downgrades Oracle on OpenAI collapse risk, cuts capital spending estimates

Oracle's reliance on OpenAI has become a material credit risk. The company has committed roughly half of its $638 billion（約100兆円） in contractual obligations to OpenAI, a privately held company whose valuation remains opaque to lenders. When SoftBank attempted to secure a loan backed by OpenAI shares, lenders forced a sharp cut from $10 billion（約1.6兆円） to $6 billion（約9600億円）—a signal of how difficult it is to price OpenAI's actual value. S&P's upgrade of Oracle's capital spending forecast to $95 billion（約15兆円） by 2027 reflects the scale of infrastructure investment required, yet the absence of near-term revenue creates a cash-burn problem that distinguishes Oracle from its cloud-provider peers.

Unlike AWS, Google Cloud, or Microsoft Azure, Oracle lacks the internal AI workloads and consumer-facing products that allow those companies to absorb excess data center capacity if a major customer falters. A collapse or severe contraction at OpenAI would leave Oracle with stranded assets and few options to repurpose them. This asymmetry is why S&P's downgrade to BBB− (one notch above junk) reflects genuine structural risk rather than mere cyclical concern. OpenAI's delayed IPO to 2027 means the company will remain privately held and difficult to value for several more years, extending Oracle's exposure window.