Morgan Stanley has raised its capital expenditure estimates for Meta and Amazon, projecting that cloud hyperscalers' AI data center spending could reach $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） by 2028. The investment bank's move underscores a critical market debate: whether the massive returns on these AI investments will justify their scale and volatility in both companies' stock valuations.
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Morgan Stanley raised its capital expenditure estimates for Meta Platforms and Amazon, citing analyst projections that spending on AI data centers by cloud hyperscalers could reach $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） by 2028.
Why it matters
The scale of AI infrastructure investment directly affects profitability and stock valuations for major tech companies. Returns on these massive expenditures remain uncertain, making CapEx forecasts a key factor in how investors evaluate both Meta and Amazon.
What to watch
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak highlighted the debate around AI spending returns as a central question for both stocks, signaling that investor confidence hinges on whether these investments generate proportional business value.
Morgan Stanley's upward revision of AI infrastructure spending forecasts signals growing confidence in the scale of the cloud hyperscaler buildout, but it also crystallizes a fundamental investor concern: whether returns will justify the capital intensity. The analyst note identifies returns on AI spending as a key debate for both Meta and Amazon, two of the largest drivers of hyperscaler CapEx. The $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） figure by 2028 represents the cumulative bet that these companies and their peers are making on the long-term value of AI capabilities, yet the profitability timeline and competitive dynamics remain uncertain. For business leaders and investors, this forecast anchors the discussion around tech valuations on a concrete measure of infrastructure commitment rather than speculative product adoption.
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