Retail traders surge into DXYZ and VCX funds betting on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs at trillion-dollar valuations

DXYZ surged 27% and VCX jumped 18% on Thursday as prediction market traders priced in blockbuster IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. SpaceX has officially filed to go public on Nasdaq; OpenAI could reportedly confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday.

Polymarket currently assigns 37% odds to SpaceX closing its first trading day between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion; Kalshi places 92% odds on an OpenAI IPO this year and 69% odds on an Anthropic IPO this year. Polymarket places 65% odds that OpenAI closes above a $1.4 trillion valuation and nearly 50% odds for Anthropic above $1.8 trillion.

DXYZ holds SpaceX at 16.2% of portfolio assets; VCX holds Anthropic at 20.7%, OpenAI at 9.9%, and SpaceX at about 5%, with AI-related investments making up nearly 44% of VCX's portfolio overall.

Deutsche Bank warns that projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from business fundamentals: SpaceX generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, OpenAI an estimated $13.1 billion, and Anthropic reportedly annualized revenue of $11 billion, yet traders are pricing valuations comparable to or exceeding Berkshire Hathaway, which generated over $350 billion in annual revenue last year.