Vertiv's stock has fallen despite a $15 billion backlog, as analysts debate whether AI data center capacity additions will slow in late 2026 and 2027.

Vertiv, a supplier of power systems and liquid cooling equipment for AI data centers, has a backlog of roughly $15 billion supported by accelerating order trends. The company's next earnings update is due in late July 2026.

The bear case rests on two concerns: hyperscaler capital spending growth (running above 30% annually) cannot sustain indefinitely, and data center power capacity is being announced faster than utility interconnections can deliver. Combined 2026 capex from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft is on track to exceed $700 billion versus roughly $410 billion last year.

Rising AI cluster densities mean cooling demand per square foot is increasing, not decreasing. Liquid cooling is being designed into 2026 and 2027 deployments as the default for high-density GPU racks, positioning Vertiv to benefit from that shift despite potential cyclical headwinds from slower capex growth (15–20% instead of recent pace), supply chain constraints, and tariff exposure.

Vertiv stock has traded up nearly 100% over the last six months.