Micron revenue surges 196% on AI chip demand

What happened

Micron's revenue grew 196.3% year-over-year to $23.9 billion（約3.8兆円） in its most recent quarter, with DRAM and NAND revenues jumping 207% and 169% respectively. Management says it can only fulfill about "50% to two-thirds" of what key customers are requesting, and the company is planning capital spending "above $25 billion（約4兆円）" in fiscal 2026, with construction-related spending alone expected to "increase by over $10 billion（約1.6兆円） year over year" in fiscal 2027.

Why it matters

The stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.7—nearly double the S&P 500's 24.1—implying the market believes AI has permanently transformed memory from a cyclical commodity into a critical strategic asset. However, Micron's history shows severe volatility: the stock fell 50% during the 2022 inflation shock (double the S&P 500's 25% decline), 43% in the 2020 pandemic crash, and 88% in the 2008 financial crisis. The options market is currently pricing in an implied volatility of 94, in the 94th percentile, suggesting traders expect continued large price swings.

What to watch

The durability of Micron's new strategic customer agreements—the company has recently signed its "first five-year SCA"—will signal whether this cycle is genuinely different. If these long-term contracts prove protective during a downturn, they could indicate a structural change; if not, the large capital spending plan risks creating tomorrow's supply glut if AI demand moderates.