Oracle, Microsoft stocks sink on OpenAI concerns

Oracle and Microsoft's stock declines in the first half of 2026 reflect two separate but related pressures. First, AI infrastructure forecasts have increased throughout the year, prompting major capital spending by hyperscalers (large cloud providers) like Oracle and Microsoft. This elevated spending has weighed on their valuations, even as more specialized AI infrastructure companies like Vertiv and GE Vernova outperformed. Second, both companies carry concentrated exposure to OpenAI, whose ambitious financial trajectory has begun to draw investor skepticism.

The bond market's reaction to Oracle's $300 billion（約48兆円） commitment reveals the core concern: OpenAI projects a gap between its enormous cash burn (more than $650 billion（約100兆円） through 2030) and its revenue target ($280 billion（約45兆円） by 2030), starting from a $20 billion（約3.2兆円） annualized run rate. While Oracle's infrastructure deal may ultimately prove sound, investors remain unconvinced that OpenAI's AI models will generate sufficient value to justify the infrastructure investment from both Microsoft and Oracle. This uncertainty has been sufficient to move credit pricing and equity valuations downward for both companies.