Oracle and Microsoft stocks fell roughly 24.8% in the first half of 2026, dragged down by investor concerns over their ties to OpenAI.
Microsoft holds about 27% of OpenAI, and Oracle committed to a $300 billion（約48兆円） infrastructure deal starting in 2027.
Bond markets are signaling elevated default risk for Oracle, reflecting doubt about whether OpenAI can justify its massive spending—it expects to burn more than $650 billion（約100兆円） in cash through 2030 against projected $280 billion（約45兆円） in revenue by 2030.
What happened
Oracle stock fell 24.8% in the first half of 2026, and Microsoft declined by a similar amount. Both companies have significant exposure to OpenAI—Microsoft owns about 27% of the company, and Oracle signed a $300 billion（約48兆円） five-year deal in September 2025 to build AI infrastructure for OpenAI starting in 2027.
Why it matters
Bond markets have priced in heightened default risk for Oracle after the OpenAI deal was announced. Investors are questioning whether OpenAI's financial projections are realistic, given the company expects to burn through more than $650 billion（約100兆円） in cash through 2030 while generating $280 billion（約45兆円） in revenue by 2030—a significant gap from its $20 billion（約3.2兆円） annualized revenue run rate at the end of 2025.
What to watch
The five-year Oracle–OpenAI deal begins in 2027. Credit default swaps on Oracle's 5-year bonds currently price in a 2.8% annual default probability and a cumulative default probability of 13.4%, up substantially after the deal announcement.
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Oracle and Microsoft's stock declines in the first half of 2026 reflect two separate but related pressures. First, AI infrastructure forecasts have increased throughout the year, prompting major capital spending by hyperscalers (large cloud providers) like Oracle and Microsoft. This elevated spending has weighed on their valuations, even as more specialized AI infrastructure companies like Vertiv and GE Vernova outperformed. Second, both companies carry concentrated exposure to OpenAI, whose ambitious financial trajectory has begun to draw investor skepticism.
The bond market's reaction to Oracle's $300 billion（約48兆円） commitment reveals the core concern: OpenAI projects a gap between its enormous cash burn (more than $650 billion（約100兆円） through 2030) and its revenue target ($280 billion（約45兆円） by 2030), starting from a $20 billion（約3.2兆円） annualized run rate. While Oracle's infrastructure deal may ultimately prove sound, investors remain unconvinced that OpenAI's AI models will generate sufficient value to justify the infrastructure investment from both Microsoft and Oracle. This uncertainty has been sufficient to move credit pricing and equity valuations downward for both companies.
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