AI-focused exchange-traded funds have outperformed the broader market by 10 percentage points in 2026, driven by record capital spending on data center infrastructure by major cloud providers. Two semiconductor and electronics-services plays—Nvidia and Celestica—are trading at valuations that, combined with strong earnings growth forecasts tied to that infrastructure spend, could deliver significant gains if they confirm capex guidance during the current earnings season.
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The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF has gained 23% in 2026, outpacing the Nasdaq Composite's 13% rise. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya projects AI infrastructure build-out will remain a market driver through year-end. Nvidia has gained just 11% this year despite being dominant in AI chip design with an estimated 80% to 90% market share, while Celestica has pulled back nearly 24% from its early-June 52-week high.
Why it matters
Hyperscalers (large cloud providers) including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are poised to raise collective capital expenditure in 2026 by 77% to a record $725 billion（約120兆円）, well above the original $500 billion（約80兆円） analyst estimate. Combined contractual backlogs for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle total $2.1 trillion（約340兆円）, meaning these companies may accelerate data center construction, which would drive sustained demand for Nvidia systems and Celestica's AI networking and processor components.
What to watch
Nvidia's consensus earnings per share are projected at $16.15 by fiscal 2029, implying 50% compound annual growth over three years; if the stock trades at 30× earnings by then, its price could reach $484 (a potential 129% gain). Celestica's Q2 guidance of $4.3 billion（約6900億円） points to 49% year-over-year revenue growth, with adjusted earnings rising 61% at the midpoint; consensus projects its 2026 earnings per share at $10.29, and at 30× forward earnings with $18.95 EPS in three years, the stock could reach $568 (58% upside).
The article frames 2026 as a pivotal year for AI infrastructure investment, with cloud giants committing substantially more capital than analysts initially expected. The $725 billion（約120兆円） collective capex figure—a 77% increase and $225 billion（約36兆円） above the original $500 billion（約80兆円） estimate—signals sustained demand for the components and services that Nvidia and Celestica supply. The $2.1 trillion（約340兆円） combined contractual backlog mentioned by the body suggests these companies may further raise capex guidance at upcoming earnings, creating a self-reinforcing cycle: larger capex means faster data center build-out, which drives component orders, which supports strong earnings growth.
Nvidia's underperformance relative to the broader AI sector (11% gain vs. the ETF's 23%) appears to reflect a temporary valuation pullback rather than fundamental weakness. With hyperscalers as major customers and an 80–90% market share in AI chips, the company is positioned to benefit directly from the capex acceleration. Analyst consensus projects 50% compound annual earnings growth through fiscal 2029, and the math in the body suggests that even a modest 30× forward earnings multiple (close to the Nasdaq-100's 27×) could yield a stock price of $484 by fiscal 2029. Celestica's 24% pullback from its June high similarly appears to offer a valuation entry point: the company manufactures critical networking and processor components for hyperscalers, and its Q1 and Q2 guidance show 53% and 49% year-over-year revenue growth, with adjusted earnings accelerating even faster. Both stocks, the article implies, are attractive before they confirm these growth trends in earnings announcements.
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