Oracle's stock has fallen to $175 amid broad software-sector weakness, but a $638 billion（約100兆円） backlog of committed future cloud revenue locks in years of earnings growth that may justify a re-rating.

What happened

Oracle's Q4 results showed Cloud Infrastructure revenue jumping 93% year over year to $5.79 billion（約9300億円）, with total cloud now 52% of sales. The company's Remaining Performance Obligations—a measure of committed future revenue—surged 363% to $638 billion（約100兆円）, of which $75 billion（約12兆円） is backed by customer-supplied or prepaid GPUs that reduce Oracle's own capital burden. Management guided FY2027 revenue to $90 billion（約14兆円） and raised non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.05, while forecasting Q1 cloud growth of 58% to 64%.

What to watch

Oracle must demonstrate that Q1 cloud growth lands within its guided 58% to 64% range and that free cash flow begins to improve as the capital-intensive buildout matures. The company plans to raise roughly $40 billion（約6.4兆円） more in debt and equity in FY2027 on top of existing liabilities, and announced a 21,000-employee reduction (roughly 13% of workforce) with $1.84 billion（約2900億円） in severance costs. Any slip in cloud growth below guidance, an unexpectedly dilutive equity raise, or a major AI customer renegotiating commitments would invalidate the thesis.