Big Tech earnings test whether AI spending pays off

Microsoft and Meta open the busiest stretch on Wednesday. Analysts expect Microsoft to raise its 2026 capex forecast toward $238 billion（約38兆円）, testing whether spending discipline can offset rising memory chip costs. Meta faces separate scrutiny: investors have grown skeptical of Meta's AI spending and are rotating capital toward Google instead. Alphabet's cloud unit grew 82% last quarter, the number Wall Street now wants Meta to match.

Apple reports Thursday alongside Amazon. Tim Cook will deliver his final earnings call as chief executive. Analysts expect Apple revenue near $108.9 billion（約17兆円）, per MarketBeat estimates. The company has leaned on a capital-light AI approach, avoiding the outsized spending pressuring rivals. Apple stock hit a record high earlier in the month as rising memory prices squeezed cheaper phone rivals. Apple hit an all-time high close of $333 on July 24.

SK Hynix reports first, on Tuesday, in its first earnings since a record Nasdaq debut. Consensus points to 84.1 trillion won in sales, which would set a new operating profit record. The report follows a volatile month, including a post-listing selloff and a KOSPI rebound past 7,000.

The earnings arrive amid broader market pressures. Brent crude climbed past $100 a barrel, adding another variable to the week. The price of oil has slid over 7% as hostilities eased in the Middle East. The reports come a day before the Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision, with markets already pricing a possible hike. Investors are juggling four major earnings reports and a Fed decision in three days.

The week's earnings reports arrive at a critical inflection point for Big Tech's AI strategy. For months, companies have justified enormous capital expenditures on the premise that AI infrastructure will unlock transformative returns, but investors are now demanding concrete evidence. Microsoft's expected 2026 capex guidance of $238 billion（約38兆円） represents a test of whether the company can offset rising memory chip costs while maintaining spending discipline. Meta faces the sharpest scrutiny: the company's aggressive AI investments have triggered investor skepticism, prompting a visible rotation of capital toward Alphabet, whose cloud unit posted 82% growth last quarter—a benchmark Wall Street now expects Meta to meet.

Apple's position stands in stark contrast. The company has eschewed the outsized spending that pressures rivals, instead pursuing a capital-light AI approach. This restraint may be resonating with markets: Apple stock hit an all-time high close of $333 on July 24. As Tim Cook delivers his final earnings call as chief executive, the company's strategy suggests an alternative thesis—that disciplined capital allocation and measured AI adoption can outperform the spend-heavy model embraced by peers.

The timing compounds the pressure. Earnings land a day before the Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate decision, with markets already pricing a possible hike. Oil volatility—climbing above $100 a barrel and then sliding over 7% as Middle East hostilities eased—adds another layer of uncertainty. SK Hynix's first report since its record Nasdaq debut, with consensus pointing to 84.1 trillion won in sales and a potential operating profit record, will also signal demand for memory chips from the very companies defending their AI spending.

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