Buffett's death could trigger 10-15% Nasdaq decline

What happened

Josh Wolfe, cofounder of Lux Capital, shared two significant predictions for the remainder of 2026 through 2027 on the Term Sheet Podcast. First, he expects Warren Buffett will die soon, which could trigger a Nasdaq decline of 10% to 15% concentrated in the Magnificent 7 tech stocks. Second, he estimates a 10% probability that war in Iran leads to fertilizer scarcity, causing a food crisis on Europe's periphery and destabilizing the EU.

Why it matters

Wolfe argues that widespread index-fund adoption has artificially propped up the largest tech companies, making them fragile. A sharp tech selloff could create an opening for value investors—those who buy stocks trading below intrinsic worth—to outperform by 300 basis points or more. He frames these scenarios as low-probability, high-consequence outcomes; intelligence professionals he consulted did not dismiss the geopolitical scenario, noting that authoritarian figures in Europe may already be waiting for a crisis to seize power.

What to watch

Wolfe calls these predictions "lower probability, high magnitude outcomes"—relatively unlikely but consequential. He emphasized that imagining worst-case scenarios is part of investment success, though he remains optimistic about long-term technological progress despite his cynicism about human behavior.