Blackstone's AI bet fuels record exits while PE rivals stuck with $3.9T zombie funds

Blackstone announced blowout earnings on Thursday that underscore its early bet on AI infrastructure at a moment when much of the private equity industry is frozen. The firm posted distributable earnings of $1.98 billion（約3200億円）, or $1.52 per share—26% higher year-over-year and significantly above analyst expectations of $1.35 per share. Over the past 12 months, Blackstone realized $144 billion（約23兆円）, with $31 billion（約5兆円） coming in the most recent quarter alone. Much of that gain was driven by a single transaction: the sale of three data center assets to Digital Realty Trust for $3.5 billion（約5600億円） last month, which generated the real estate division's highest quarterly revenue in four years. President Jonathan Gray highlighted the firm's strategic positioning, stating, "Our outstanding results are proof of our early, strategic decision to lean into AI, its infrastructure and compute shortage." The realizations, combined with appreciation of other AI investments, directly fueled the earnings beat.

The contrast with the broader private equity landscape is stark. The industry is contending with a record number of unsellable portfolio companies and "zombie funds"—aging investment vehicles that have outlived their intended lifespans because exits have become nearly impossible. As of last year, the industry held an estimated $3.9 trillion（約620兆円） in unsold portfolio companies, meaning roughly three-quarters of all North American private equity assets were locked up on balance sheets. The problem is particularly acute in the oldest cohort: the net value of assets trapped in funds at least a decade old now stands at a record $348 billion（約56兆円）, a figure 100 times as high as it was in 2005. The root causes are familiar—frenzied dealmaking during the ultra-low-interest-rate period created inflated valuations, and the subsequent rise in borrowing costs and buyer reluctance has made exits elusive.

The phenomenon is expected to worsen. A June survey from Coller Capital found that 54% of firms expect the number of zombie funds in their portfolios to increase over the next two years, signaling that the industry remains trapped in a difficult cycle of aging, unsellable assets with no clear near-term path to resolution.

Blackstone's strong earnings underscore a widening gap in the private equity industry between winners positioned in high-demand sectors and laggards burdened by aging assets. The firm's strategic emphasis on AI infrastructure and data center assets has yielded tangible returns at a moment when traditional private equity is struggling with the consequences of a dealmaking boom conducted under ultra-low interest rates and inflated valuations. Those conditions have reversed sharply: buyers are now reluctant to pay elevated prices, and high interest rates have made borrowing expensive, effectively freezing a large portion of portfolio company sales.

The "zombie fund" phenomenon—funds that persist well past their originally intended investment horizon—reflects this broader dysfunction. With $348 billion（約56兆円） locked in funds at least a decade old (a record, and 100 times the 2005 level), and 54% of firms surveyed expecting the problem to worsen, the industry faces mounting pressure to find exits or restructure these holdings. Blackstone's ability to monetize AI-related assets at scale while competitors remain saddled with unsellable companies highlights both the tactical advantage of sector focus and the structural headwinds affecting the rest of the market.

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