AI stocks slump 10–15%, but early-stage boom may offer decade buying chance

In recent years, artificial intelligence stocks have been the primary engine of growth in the S&P 500, with the technology viewed as a game-changing driver of corporate efficiency and earnings growth. Chip designer Nvidia and cloud computing giant Amazon have been key beneficiaries of the early AI boom, generating significant revenue growth. Broader AI-focused funds tell the same story: the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF jumped nearly 50% from its launch a year ago, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF soared more than 200% over the past three years.

But momentum has faltered recently. Since early June, the Ives ETF has slipped 10%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF has dropped 15% from its June 22 peak, as of the July 13 market close. Investors have grown cautious due to geopolitical turmoil and inflation concerns, but the deeper worry centers on whether tech companies' massive spending on AI infrastructure will justify the returns. Technology leaders are planning to invest nearly $700 billion（約110兆円） this year alone in AI infrastructure build-out, responding to exploding demand for capacity to run AI workloads. Yet doubts linger about whether the revenue opportunity will live up to the hype.

The article argues, however, that the AI story is far from over—in fact, it is barely beginning. So far, activity has centered on developing the technology and training models, but the real growth wave will come when companies and individuals begin regularly using AI to solve real-world problems. Industries such as robotics and pharmaceuticals may come to rely heavily on AI in the years ahead for major breakthroughs. Infrastructure winners like Nvidia (trading at 22x forward earnings) and Microsoft (at 20x estimates) should continue generating growth as their products remain essential inputs. Beyond that, new winners are likely to emerge as companies apply AI to gain efficiency, lower costs, and boost innovation. On this view, current declines do not signal the end of the AI boom but rather a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity for quality players well-positioned to benefit from long-term adoption.

AI stocks have been the main driver of gains in the S&P 500 in recent years, with companies like Nvidia and Amazon generating significant revenue growth from the early stages of the AI boom. The Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF jumped nearly 50% from its launch a year ago, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF soared more than 200% over the past three years. However, recent weeks have brought a sharp reversal as investors grow cautious, weighed down by geopolitical turmoil, inflation concerns, and skepticism about whether tech companies' enormous AI spending will deliver commensurate returns.

The article frames this moment as potentially pivotal: the boom so far has centered on infrastructure development—building and training AI models—but the real growth catalyst may come from widespread adoption and real-world use. If industries such as robotics and pharmaceuticals begin to rely heavily on AI for major advancements, and if companies use AI to gain efficiency and lower costs, then the long-term opportunity remains intact. The decline, on this reading, is a midcycle pullback in an early-stage boom, not a sign the thesis has broken. Infrastructure leaders are still trading at what the article characterizes as reasonable multiples: Nvidia at 22x forward earnings and Microsoft at 20x—levels that may reflect pessimistic expectations and leave room for revaluation if the adoption curve accelerates.

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