Morgan Stanley: AI spending hits $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） by 2028, but 60% leaves US

Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its AI spending forecast, now projecting that global AI spending will reach $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） by 2028. In the same analysis, however, the firm's own researchers issued an important caveat: 60% of those projected dollars will leave the United States, meaning they will be spent on AI infrastructure, talent, and innovation outside American borders. This forecast clash—a bullish headline figure paired with a bearish geography—highlights a tension in the global AI race. While $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） speaks to the sector's explosive growth and the magnitude of capital being deployed, the fact that only 40% remains domestic suggests that the United States, despite leading in many areas of AI development, will not capture the majority of worldwide AI spending. The divergence underscores questions about where competitive advantages will accumulate and which regions and companies stand to benefit most from the AI economy's expansion.

Morgan Stanley's upward revision of AI spending to $1.4 trillion（約220兆円） by 2028 reflects the sector's growing capital intensity and the scale of global investment flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure, research, and deployment. However, the firm's finding that 60% of this spending occurs outside the United States introduces a significant caveat: the vast majority of AI investment is not concentrating in American companies and infrastructure. This geographic split matters because it suggests that while the total AI opportunity is substantial, the domestic US capture of that value may be limited—meaning global competitors and non-US entities are commanding a larger share of AI capital and, potentially, the long-term competitive advantages that flow from it.