SpaceX's $85.7 billion（約14兆円） IPO showed massive investor demand for AI-era tech companies, signaling what Anthropic and OpenAI may face when they go public—but also warning retail investors that much upside may already be captured by early private backers.

What happened: SpaceX completed its IPO at $135 per share, raising about $85.7 billion（約14兆円） after underwriters exercised options for extra shares. The stock opened at $150 (11% above IPO price) and closed its first day at $160.95, delivering nearly 19% gains to IPO investors. Demand exceeded $250 billion（約40兆円）, far surpassing the initial $75 billion（約12兆円） target.

Why it matters: SpaceX entered the market with real fundamentals—revenue grew from $10.4 billion（約1.7兆円） in 2023 to $18.7 billion（約3兆円） in 2025, and Starlink satellite internet generated $11.4 billion（約1.8兆円） in revenue and $4.4 billion（約7000億円） in operating income in 2025. Anthropic and OpenAI are moving toward IPOs at reported valuations of $965 billion（約150兆円） and up to $1 trillion（約160兆円） respectively, and may encounter the same investor enthusiasm. However, both will need to prove they can manage compute costs, maintain pricing power, and turn heavy AI usage into lasting profits—challenges SpaceX itself has not fully resolved, as the company remains loss-making and capital-intensive.

What to watch: Anthropic and OpenAI could open well above IPO prices if demand is strong, but retail investors should focus on revenue durability, margin improvement, and valuation before buying, since private investors may have already captured much of the earliest upside by the time these companies list publicly.