Anthropic's $1T IPO filing spurs chip supplier plays

Anthropic, the AI lab behind the Claude models, has filed confidentially to go public at a valuation reportedly nearing $1 trillion（約160兆円）. The company's revenue run rate has rocketed past $30 billion（約4.8兆円）, and it is spending staggering sums on chips and computing power. Elon Musk recently called Anthropic "obviously currently the leader in AI," yet direct investment in the company remains unavailable to most retail investors.

Two suppliers are positioned to profit substantially from Anthropic's spending: Broadcom and SpaceX. Broadcom designs the Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) that Google offers in its cloud. Anthropic has committed to an enormous amount of that capacity—roughly 1 gigawatt coming online in 2026 and about 3.5 gigawatts more starting in 2027. Analysts at Mizuho estimated Broadcom could collect around $21 billion（約3.4兆円） of AI revenue tied to Anthropic in 2026 and roughly $42 billion（約6.7兆円） in 2027. Broadcom's leadership sees its custom AI chip business topping $100 billion（約16兆円） in annual revenue by 2027, with the Anthropic relationship helping explain that projection. Broadcom also dominates AI networking gear and runs a large, steady software business, positioning it as an "arms dealer to the entire AI race."

SpaceX, now publicly traded, represents a more unexpected angle. Anthropic agreed to pay roughly $1.25 billion（約2000億円） per month to lease the Colossus supercomputer through May 2029—a contract worth more than $40 billion（約6.4兆円） in total. That data center, packed with hundreds of thousands of chips, was built by Musk's AI operation, which is now part of SpaceX. Musk once dismissed Anthropic's chances before publicly admitting he was wrong. For SpaceX shareholders, the lease constitutes a multiyear, multibillion-dollar revenue stream layered atop the company's core rocket and Starlink businesses.

Investors considering these plays should weigh material risks. Neither Broadcom nor SpaceX owns a piece of Anthropic, so shareholders will not benefit from an IPO windfall the way Anthropic's equity backers might. Upside depends on Anthropic remaining a huge customer—not guaranteed. Anthropic is reportedly exploring building its own chips, including talks with Samsung, which could eventually reduce its reliance on outside suppliers. SpaceX carries an enormous valuation and real volatility as a newly public stock. Anthropic itself, despite its momentum, is still burning cash to fund its computing buildout. The article suggests buying Broadcom and SpaceX for their broader stories first—the custom-chip empire and the launch-and-Starlink machine respectively—and treating Anthropic revenue exposure as a bonus rather than the primary thesis.

Anthropic's confidential IPO filing at a reported $1 trillion（約160兆円） valuation marks a pivotal moment in the AI market, particularly because its revenue run rate has surpassed $30 billion（約4.8兆円） while it sustains enormous spending on chips and computing infrastructure. This creates a clear capital flow story: Anthropic's bill for computational resources directly enriches its suppliers. Broadcom stands to earn around $21 billion（約3.4兆円） in 2026 and roughly $42 billion（約6.7兆円） in 2027 from Anthropic alone, stemming from its TPU capacity commitments (roughly 1 gigawatt in 2026 and about 3.5 gigawatts starting in 2027). SpaceX, now publicly traded, collects roughly $1.25 billion（約2000億円） monthly through May 2029 from the Colossus lease—a multiyear, multibillion-dollar revenue stream that compensates SpaceX shareholders for computing power built by Musk's AI operation.

However, the durability of these supplier relationships faces structural risk. Anthropic is reportedly exploring building its own chips and has engaged in talks with Samsung, signaling a potential future shift away from pure outsourcing. Additionally, the article frames this as a cash-cycling dynamic within the AI boom: the same dollars moving between a handful of companies. SpaceX carries a newly public valuation with real volatility, and Anthropic—despite its high revenue—remains cash-burn negative. For investors, these supplier plays offer indirect exposure to Anthropic's rise but are explicitly not equivalent to owning an IPO stake; they represent bets on sustained supplier relationships in an industry still in flux.