Anthropic IPO could arrive by October, valued far below SpaceX

Anthropic, the AI firm known for its Claude models popular among coders, is preparing for an initial public offering that could arrive as soon as October. According to CNBC reporting, the company has begun scheduling meetings with investors—a traditional early step in the IPO process. Bloomberg is projecting a potential October timeline, though no formal announcement has been made and the company has not yet filed its S-1, the regulatory disclosure that details financial results and growth opportunities.

The company's valuation, set most recently at $965 billion（約150兆円）, stands in sharp contrast to SpaceX's debut last month. SpaceX reached a $2 trillion（約320兆円） market cap on its first trading day, despite the company incurring nearly $5 billion（約8000億円） in losses last year. SpaceX has since seen its stock fall in recent weeks under the weight of that massive valuation, suggesting that even a market-leading enterprise can struggle to justify an extremely rich entry price.

For Anthropic, a key question for investors will be the scale of its own losses and proximity to profitability—details that remain hidden until the S-1 filing is released closer to the IPO. That financial visibility gap makes it difficult to assess whether Anthropic's eventual public valuation, while lower than SpaceX's in absolute terms, will still prove expensive relative to the company's size and near-term earnings trajectory. SpaceX's experience suggests that even companies with significant losses and outsized valuations can attract capital, but early trading performance may not reward buyers at entry if the company's growth prospects and loss profile do not align with expectations. Anthropic, with its more modest valuation but also less certain path to profitability than a mature space company, may face similar challenges in its first weeks of trading.

Anthropic's path to the public markets is accelerating, with investor meetings signaling that the company is preparing for a formal IPO process. The timing and valuation matter greatly in the context of SpaceX's recent debut: SpaceX achieved a $2 trillion（約320兆円） opening valuation despite posting nearly $5 billion（約8000億円） in losses last year, setting a remarkably high bar for other major tech companies entering the market. Anthropic's $965 billion（約150兆円） private valuation suggests it will debut at a fraction of SpaceX's public price, reflecting the different investor appetites for aerospace and AI businesses. However, the critical unknown for Anthropic is the magnitude of its own losses and whether the path to profitability is clearer than SpaceX's. Until the S-1 filing is released, investors will lack the financial transparency needed to judge whether Anthropic's entry valuation fairly reflects its loss profile and future prospects. Even if Anthropic's eventual public valuation is lower than SpaceX's in absolute terms, it could still trade at a steep multiple relative to the company's current size and earnings profile, a factor that may weigh on early trading performance.