Brian Nowak sets $815 Meta target, sees 25% upside

Meta's stock has been on a tear lately, up 9.97% over the past week and 9.59% over the past month, yet it still sits down 1.06% year to date and down 14.58% over the past year. At $651.98, it trades well off its 52-week high of $788.22, which helps explain why most of Wall Street remains measured. The consensus analyst target sits at $754.15, backed by 47 Buy and 8 Strong Buy ratings against just 7 Holds. Brian Nowak's $815 target stands out against that backdrop.

Nowak's thesis leans on evidence that AI is already lifting Meta's core ad engine. On the Q2 call, Meta reported ad impressions up 14% and average price per ad up 12%, with new AI ranking work producing an 8.3% lift in ad clicks and a 15.7% conversion uplift on Facebook. Advantage Plus end-to-end tools now run at over $75 billion in annual revenue run rate. At a forward P/E of 18, that setup looks underpriced to Nowak.

Beyond ads, Meta's enterprise AI efforts are expanding. Business agents already serve more than 1 million businesses weekly, opening subscription, usage, and results-based revenue on top of ads. Capital returns also factor in: Meta ran $26.25 billion in 2025 buybacks and pays a $1.35 billion quarterly dividend, shrinking the share count. Whether the stock reaches $815 by the end of 2026 may hinge on whether these AI-driven gains can offset the free cash flow pressure from Meta's heavy AI capex.