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Sign up free →What happened: The author holds Bitcoin and Hyperliquid (HYPE) as his only two active cryptocurrency positions. Bitcoin's appeal rests on its capped supply of 21 million coins and a next halving in 2028 that will further reduce new issuance. Hyperliquid is a decentralized trading platform that has routed 99% of its trading fees into buying back and burning its Hype token—consuming more than $2 billion(約3200億円) in value since the mechanism's launch in January 2025, and $176.2 million(約280億円) in Q1 of 2026 alone.
Why it matters: In a bear market, most cryptocurrencies have lost value, and investor conviction has shifted. The author sees Bitcoin's scarcity mechanics as a long-term price driver for patient holders, while Hyperliquid's fee-to-buyback model directly returns capital to token holders—a cash-flow argument uncommon in crypto. Both appeal to different risk tolerances: Bitcoin's immutability versus Hyperliquid's expanding revenue streams from prediction markets and tokenized assets.
What to watch: Hyperliquid faces two material headwinds. Its token has substantial unlocks running through 2027, so buyback pace must outpace dilution for the investment to succeed. More critically, regulated competitors are arriving—Kalshi won U.S. approval for a Bitcoin perpetual future on May 29, and Robinhood Markets is expected to follow. Hyperliquid currently holds a 56% market share of decentralized perpetual futures contract volumes, up from 24% at the start of the year, but migration to regulated venues could erode that lead.
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