Seagate stock has surged 297.98% year to date on AI-driven storage demand, but analysts say the easy gains are likely behind it at current valuations.

What happened

Seagate stock rose from $274.90 on December 31, 2025 to $1,094.04 on June 22, 2026, driven by strong Q3 earnings—adjusted EPS of $4.10 versus $3.50 expected, revenue up 44.07% year over year, and management raising its annual revenue growth target to a minimum of 20% over the next few years. The company reported exabyte-scale supply agreements (large-scale data storage contracts) with major cloud and hyperscale customers, with nearline capacity almost fully allocated through calendar 2027.

What to watch

The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $1,010.11 over the next 12 months, implying roughly 7.7% downside from current levels, with a hold recommendation at 90% confidence. Key risks include whether Seagate can qualify its HAMR (heat-assisted magnetic recording) technology with remaining hyperscalers on schedule and whether Q4 results show softening in pricing or miss the mid-20% growth target for exabyte shipments. A pullback to the $850–$900 range would look more attractive on a risk/reward basis if those milestones hold.