Wells Fargo warns that rising AI token costs could force hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta to cut spending, threatening the AI stock rally that has driven market gains.

What happened: Wells Fargo Chief Equity Strategist Ohsung Kwon flagged rising AI token costs as an immediate risk to AI stocks, noting that as AI labs scale back subsidies, companies including Walmart and Uber have signaled their AI budgets could be consumed much faster than expected. In response, Wells Fargo moved from a bullish stance in April to a "firmly neutral" outlook this month.

Why it matters: Microsoft and Meta are already ramping up massive capital expenditures—Microsoft alone is forecasting roughly $190 billion（約30兆円） in CapEx for calendar year 2026—at a moment when rising costs could force them to pass expenses on to customers just as businesses grow more sensitive to AI-related spending. A slowdown in AI spending could undermine the growth theme that has fueled many of the market's biggest winners.

What to watch: Microsoft's stock has fallen 17.9% over the past year despite posting fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue of $82.9 billion（約13兆円） (up 18% year-over-year) and Azure cloud services growth of 40% year-over-year. The company's AI business surpassed a $37 billion（約5.9兆円） annual revenue run rate during the quarter, soaring 123% year-over-year.