Getting into Anthropic now requires at least $25 million, often more.
OpenAI entry costs about $500,000 to $1 million.
Anthropic shares are far more in demand, with valuation near $1.4 trillion.
What happened
Secondary-market demand for Anthropic shares far exceeds that for OpenAI, with Anthropic requiring roughly $25 million or more to get in, while OpenAI allows entry with about $500,000 to $1 million. Anthropic's valuation is now about $1.4 trillion, up more than 400% year-over-year.
Why it matters
The gap reflects investor sentiment that Anthropic is overheating, while OpenAI may be underpriced. One investor says "OpenAI feels underpriced and Anthropic feels overpriced," calling OpenAI "a phenomenal deal right now." Anthropic's shares have been the most in-demand for about a year, with demand outweighing supply by an estimated 3x to 5x.
What to watch
The test is whether buyers can actually get in, as Anthropic’s tight cap-table control decides who gains access despite surging demand. Watch for whether demand for OpenAI shares continues its recent recovery, signaling a possible rebalancing.
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The secondary market for shares in private AI companies is offering a rare real-time view of investor sentiment ahead of the anticipated IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. For nearly a year, Anthropic has been the most sought-after name, with demand so intense that the company has tightened who can buy into its cap table. Sellers are now offloading blocks worth $20 million, $50 million, or $100 million at a time, and entry typically requires a minimum of $25 million, often more.
This frothy demand has pushed Anthropic's valuation to roughly $1.4 trillion, up more than 400% year-over-year. Yet some investors see a disconnect: while Anthropic feels overpriced, OpenAI may be the relative bargain. OpenAI's lower entry point of $500,000 to $1 million, combined with a recent recovery in demand, suggests that institutional investors are beginning to find the OpenAI story more compelling at current pricing.
The tight supply in Anthropic's secondary market, with demand possibly exceeding supply by five times, indicates that the appetite for AI mega-caps remains strong but may be creating pricing inefficiencies. How these dynamics evolve could signal whether the AI investment frenzy is broadening or becoming concentrated in a few names.
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