Microsoft books $3.2B gain on Anthropic stake, OpenAI slips

Microsoft reported its fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2026 (ending June 30) with strong overall results: $90 billion（約14兆円） in revenue and $35.8 billion（約5.7兆円） in net income for the quarter, and $331.8 billion（約53兆円） in revenue with $133.7 billion（約21兆円） in net income for the full year. Buried in these results was a notable detail about the divergent performance of its two largest AI lab investments.

On Anthropic, Microsoft recorded a $3.2 billion（約5100億円） gain for the quarter, translating to a 33-cent boost to diluted earnings per share of $4.81. This investment stems from Microsoft's $5 billion（約8000億円） commitment to Anthropic announced in November 2025. The deal was structured as a circular arrangement in which Anthropic agreed to purchase $30 billion（約4.8兆円） worth of Azure services. Notably, Microsoft does not routinely update Anthropic's valuation each quarter; the company disclosed this particular gain because of its magnitude.

Microsoft's OpenAI investment, by contrast, deteriorated in the same period. The company marked down its OpenAI stake by approximately $600 million（約960億円）, reducing diluted EPS by about 7 cents. Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI and, while it also receives revenue-share payments from the company, does not publicly report the amounts. Instead, Microsoft accounts for the value of its equity stake, which it reassesses quarterly. The $600 million（約960億円） write-down was relatively small relative to Microsoft's overall profitability but notable enough to mention.

On a full-year basis, the picture shifted. Microsoft's OpenAI investment generated a $5 billion（約8000億円） gain and contributed $0.67 to EPS for fiscal 2026 (out of $17.95 total diluted EPS). Still, the company found it noteworthy—and chose to highlight it in its earnings disclosure—that Anthropic produced nearly as much gain in a single quarter as OpenAI did over the entire year. This discrepancy underscores how rapidly Anthropic's valuation has appreciated relative to OpenAI's, reflecting the intensifying competition between the two labs and the market's shifting assessment of their respective valuations.

Microsoft's fiscal 2026 results highlight a striking divergence in its AI strategy bets. The company's Anthropic investment, made just eight months prior in November 2025, has appreciated significantly enough to register a $3.2 billion（約5100億円） gain in a single quarter—a gain that Microsoft felt compelled to disclose because of its magnitude relative to OpenAI's annual performance. By contrast, the OpenAI stake, in which Microsoft has held a 27% ownership stake for longer, declined by $600 million（約960億円） in the same quarter, though this was cushioned by a full-year gain of $5 billion（約8000億円）. The disparity is not merely a matter of quarterly volatility; the Anthropic gain nearly matched OpenAI's entire annual gain, which suggests a material revaluation of the two labs' relative standing. Microsoft's decision to mark down OpenAI quarterly while only updating Anthropic's value as warranted (not routinely each period) creates an asymmetric reporting picture, but the figures speak to how rapidly Anthropic's valuation has moved in the competitive AI market. Both investments remain strategically tied to Azure consumption commitments—the $30 billion（約4.8兆円） Anthropic deal being the more recent high-profile example—positioning Microsoft to benefit not only from equity appreciation but also from the business revenue these relationships generate.

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