BNP Paribas picks Arista, Seagate, Astera as top AI supply-chain bets through 2027

BNP Paribas identified three companies as its top picks for exposure to AI infrastructure demand over the next several years. Arista Networks builds high-speed networking switches used in data centers. Seagate Technology manufactures data-storage products. Astera Labs supplies the connectivity chips—particularly high-speed optical transceivers—that move data within and between AI servers and data centers.

Analyst Karl Ackerman stated that the next major demand catalyst may not arrive for another quarter, but he remains optimistic on companies exposed to agentic AI CPUs, custom processors, 200G networking chips (used for rapid inter-chip communication), and 1.6T optical transceivers (the fastest transceiver standard currently deployed). The bank's price target revisions underscored that conviction: AMD's target was raised to $600 from $460, and Astera Labs' target was raised to $475 from $260.

BNP's market forecasts quantify the expected growth. Data-center switch sales are projected to grow at a 44% compound annual rate, climbing from $26.9 billion（約4.3兆円） in 2024 to $114.7 billion（約18兆円） by 2028. Within that category, backend switching—the hardware that handles data movement between rows of servers—is expected to expand nearly 8-fold to $78.6 billion（約13兆円）. Optical transceiver sales, the fastest-growing category, may reach $53.1 billion（約8.5兆円）. These figures suggest BNP expects AI infrastructure investment to remain sustained through 2027 and that networking and connectivity will absorb a growing share of total data-center capex.

BNP Paribas' upgrade of its AI infrastructure outlook reflects confidence that the buildout of large-scale AI systems will continue to drive demand for specialized hardware well into 2027. The analyst's emphasis on agentic AI CPUs (processors designed for autonomous systems), custom silicon, and high-speed networking and optical components suggests the bank sees the competitive advantage shifting toward companies that can supply the most demanding, specialized parts of the data center rather than commodity infrastructure.

The forecasted growth rates are striking: a 44% compound annual rate for data-center switches and an 8-fold expansion for backend switching imply that networking infrastructure is becoming a larger fraction of total data-center spending. Optical transceivers—the devices that move data between racks and across continents at ultra-high speeds—are projected to reach $53.1 billion（約8.5兆円）, a scale comparable to entire traditional semiconductor markets. These projections suggest BNP believes AI data centers will require not just more compute but proportionally much more networking and connectivity capacity to move data between chips and systems.