AI demand adds ＋1.18％ to US GDP, Fed staff estimate

The Fed staff's numbers sit alongside a set of rival estimates that vary widely — from BofA's ＋0.4％ to Bridgewater's ＋1.4％ — reflecting how difficult it is to isolate AI's contribution to measured GDP. Underneath the headline figure, the accounting matters: once AI-related net imports are netted out, the US domestic production and supply side of the boom comes to ＋0.73％. That gap is the channel through which US AI demand reaches other economies, and the BIS has already documented the scale: data-center and IT manufacturing spending alone reached 1% of US GDP by mid-2025, while data-center and chip-fab construction added an average of 0.4 percentage points to US real GDP growth over the three years from 2022. The BIS Bulletin's attention to financing — from cash flows to debt — points to the next question for markets: whether the borrowing behind this buildout stays sustainable if growth contributions fluctuate.