Arm Holdings has dropped 13% in a week amid hawkish Fed signals, but analysts remain split on whether the $342 price point is fair value or a setup for further pullback to $310.

What happened

Arm's stock fell 13.02% over the past week as the Federal Reserve signaled slower interest-rate cuts. The company reported that data center royalty revenue more than doubled year-over-year in Q4, and it disclosed more than $2 billion（約3200億円） in customer demand for its new Arm AGI CPU across FY2027 and FY2028, with Meta signed as lead co-development partner.

What to watch

Of 40 covering analysts, 21 rate the stock Buy, 10 Hold, 7 Strong Buy, and 2 Sell. Consensus target is $254.87, implying roughly 25% downside from the current $342 level. Investors waiting for a pullback to the $310 zone on macro noise—rather than company-specific deterioration—could capture the multi-year AGI CPU thesis at a 10% better entry point with materially less drawdown risk.