AI boom could entrench autocratic control, researcher warns

The article presents research on how authoritarian regimes adapt to structural economic change—a thesis built on a surprising historical pattern. The conventional wisdom, associated with Nobel laureates Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek, held that economic liberalization would weaken autocratic rule by making citizens less dependent on the state and therefore more capable of demanding political freedoms. Yet roughly half of all autocracies that opened their economies experienced increased human rights abuses instead. The researcher's answer centers on elite politics: when liberalization threatens the influence of regime insiders—party officials, military officers, and other power brokers—leaders must find ways to keep them satisfied. Repression serves this function by signaling commitment to protecting elite interests while allowing leaders to comply with international pressure for economic reforms. This creates a paradox where policies intended to democratize can actually entrench authoritarianism.

The AI sector now offers a new test case for this dynamic. In China, centralized control over AI—through a commission led by Xi Jinping's closest ally and through state backing of aligned firms—may be creating a new class of elites whose power depends on the leader's patronage rather than independent market success. If those new elites become an alternative base of support, they could reduce the leader's dependence on older institutional power centers, potentially creating space for greater centralization rather than diffusion of power. The researcher remains cautious about predicting the full trajectory, but the structural parallel is clear: emerging sectors of wealth and influence can be weaponized by autocrats to consolidate rather than distribute authority.